Design Forecasting FAQ: What It Is, What It Isn’t, and Why It Matters.
Design forecasting is very often a misunderstood practice. It has been mistaken for trend reporting, confused with data science, or conflated with design psychology. In truth, it shares some vocabulary with those fields but operates with a different intent. This FAQ was created to clarify where our practice sits, how it functions, and what distinguishes a true design forecast from everything that merely resembles one.
1 | So, what are the future trends?
Easily the most frequent question we get asked and also the broadest of broad questions possible. Answering it requires asking our own questions, back. For what industry? What segment? What future time frame? For what audience? And, what brand is asking?
You can probably immediately see that there are many factors at play. With true custom forecasting - which is our practice - the work isn’t finished with a general sweep of culture and design at large. It requires contextualizing. What are the problems your brand requires forecasting to solve? What role are you trying to play in the future? Each client is going to answer differently - even from their closest competitors - and so our role is to frame out the full roadmap of future directions as well as your brand’s best routes within it.
2 | There’s plenty of free trend info online. Why would we pay for it?
We usually get this question from companies who have never used forecasting services before - so if that’s not you, feel free to disregard.
The primary reason you work with a forecasting service is that ~90% of the free trend information online is not coming from professional trend sources. Established services either put their real content behind a paywall, or they offer customized direct-to-client reports. If information was your product, you would too. With much of the free content you find online, it typically comes from one of two places: 1) a website that is a bit of an unknown, or 2) an established media outlet who has created a “trend piece” by polling design professionals - such as interior designers. With the former, be very aware. With the latter, understand it might be content for content’s sake. While we have absolutely nothing against established media or interior designers, neither are forecasting professionals or agencies practicing an applied methodology. What you’re getting here is likely opinion-based commentary, or perhaps even second-hand knowledge. That doesn’t mean they can’t be accurate, but you simply don’t have a way to qualify it - and that makes acting on it essentially the same as gambling.
3 | How exactly do you forecast? Where do you begin?
Everyone wants the answer to revolve around data and…well, it just doesn’t. While data is exceptionally useful, it’s only part of a story. If you ever watched the movie The Big Short, the data pointed to a pattern - but it was the behaviors and mindsets of bankers, realtors, and home buyers that explained what was about to happen. Human behavior is key. Which is why the current version of our proprietary methodology uses a human-centric model. When we’re developing forecasts, we always start there.
4 | How far ahead can you see?
As with anything, the further out you look, the less detail you get. Forecasting 10 or 15 years out is important because it gives you the horizon line. But 3-5 years gives you the curves in the road. We are constantly toggling our lens between the two.
5 | How often are you right?
Truly a hard question - and not just because our egos are involved. Do design directions we predict come to fruition? 80-90% of the time, yes. Are there other factors at play? Of course. We did not predict a pandemic in 2020, but (thankfully) it made the majority of our 2020 predictions become more relevant.
6 | What if we don’t want to follow current moments, but instead stay unique?
Well first of all, we can’t tell you how happy that makes us. Despite the misconception about our field of work, forecasting is not all about doing the same thing as everyone else. Inspiring outliers are the very thing that keep design evolutions going. For brands that want to make their own path, we create something unique together - but it’s still deeply valuable to know future culture and consumer shifts, as they will help indicate customer responsiveness to whatever we’re helping you to develop.
7 | What are the core benefits of working with you?
The information we provide typically allows our clients to realize three significant benefits. First, we demonstrate not just What/How (color/design/product, etc) design is evolving, but Why. We guide brands on the relevance of our recommendations and help them understand how past evolutions led to current ones, as well as how those are further evolving into the future. We find when clients see the What and the Why for themselves, they can make more informed decisions across the board.
Second, by understanding forthcoming design shifts, internal teams on the client’s side who may not see eye to eye - such as product development, marketing, and sales - begin aligning as a unified voice. This is a powerful ripple-effect outcome for the teams and the brand overall.
Third, clients can and often do share their new found knowledge with their supply chain and customers - effectively providing their whole system with greater value.
8 | The world is all about AI now. What does that mean for forecasting?
This is obviously a newer question but one we’re getting more frequently. We have so much to say on this topic that we are reserving it for an upcoming article dedicated to AI + forecasting. Stay tuned.
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